Seattle Snow Tomorrow??

Well I feel like I am on repeat now but more snow is possible for Western Washington tomorrow. 

The low off our coast that has been giving us our snow for the past few days will bring in another round of moisture, starting as early as tonight. 

Around midnight tonight, moisture from the south will make it's way up north. This will be fairly scattered, similar to the past couple of days so snowfall amounts should stay on the lighter side. At this time only expecting a light coating for most areas but up to an inch of snow will be possible in areas where the showers train over.

The real potential will be tmrw evening when that low moves closer and spins up a slow moving band of moisture up the Puget Sound. As usual, there is a lot of uncertainty as to where the band sets up and the amount of precip associated with the band. At this time, I think the HRRR model represents the most likely scenario as seen below. As you can see, the band enters the area around 3 PM tmrw, at that point temps will be too warm for accumulations, so it would likely be just snow in the air. The air is fairly dry so any heavy precip would easily bring temps down.
Then later in the evening, the band begins to stall. This would be good for Puget Sound snow prospects as the temps would be cool enough for sticking snow. IF the band does stall as shown below, we could see some accumulations in the Puget Sound, including Seattle.

Right now this looks to be a bit more widespread than the last couple of events so more people could see accumulations out of it. Right now 1-3 inches is my estimate for the Puget Sound area however some areas could see more and some less. 

I do want to mention that this event looks to have a high ceiling but there are also a lot of failure modes at this point so confidence is not high at all. 

A look into the future shows that temps should remain well below average with another potential Arctic blast next week but that will be for another post. 

Will update tmrw.

Have a good night!!

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Widespread Lowland Snow Incoming!!

Image
 Well it is going to be an interesting 48 hours coming up. We will have snow, ice, sleet, rain, wind, basically everything on the weather bingo card in the next 2 days.  A strong and moist Pacific system will move into the area tomorrow evening, spreading precipitation into a very cold and dry air mass. A ripe set up for a snowstorm in the PNW.  Current satellite imagery shows moisture moving into Oregon.  This moisture will spread north and with the cold temperatures in place, it will bring wintry weather to the lowlands of Oregon and Washington. Winter and ice storm warnings are out for Portland and the Willamete valley. This storm will work effectively to scour out cold air in the upper levels so I expect precipitation type to quickly transition to freezing rain and sleet south of Salem. However, upper levels should stay just cold enough for precipitation to remain snow north of Wilsonville.  The low will pull east winds out of the gorge, keeping things very ...
Read more

Friday Night Update

Image
The much talked about potential for lowland snow is finally here and we are in the range where we can talk about specifics. Tonight, a cold front is crossing the area, evident in satellite imagery.  Behind this cold front is much colder air which will filter into the area tonight. Temps are sitting in the upper 40's currently in much of the Puget Sound, by about 2 AM, much of the area will be in the 30's and a gradual cool down will continue. At this time there are several chances for lowland snow, but accumulations will be spotty as the system is more showery in nature and not organized.  There will be several areas with a heightened potential for lowland snow and I will point it out on this little graphic.  Zone 1 is in Snohomish county and has a heightened potential for snow due to the convergence zone setting up over there tonight and into tomorrow. There is a chance this extends southwards briefly so some of northern King county could also see some snow. I expect abo...
Read more

Evening Update

Image
 We are very close to tonight's snow potential and models still have no idea what will happen. Looking at Sattelite imagery, the low pressure we have been tracking looks to be a bit north of Hoquiam. How north this low goes will determine which area gets the most moisture. Earlier this area looked to be King County and the Central Sound, but now this area may have shifted a bit northwest. Northern King County and the Kitsap peninsula.  As I said earlier, this looks to be a bit more widespread in terms of moisture, but temps look to be more marginal so elevation will definitely aid with snow. Looking at the graphic below, the area circled in blue will have the most access to moisture tonight. In this area, places above 500 feet should see 2-8 inches of snow. Below that, 1-3 inches of snow seems likely. Another wildcard going into tonight is the deformation band as the low passes to the south of us, the models are struggling to nail that feature but if it does form then areas un...
Read more