Cold and Winter Storm Later In The Week??

It turned out to be quite a chilly day as the north winds began to push into the Puget Sound later in the day. Many spots should get quite chilly tonight as clear skies work with just a bit of snow cover. Widespread low 20's and maybe even some teens will be possible!! Make sure to protect pipes, plants and pets. Dress warm if you are going out on this chilly evening!!

More of the same tomorrow and Wednesday with very cold temperatures likely. Then things get interesting on Thursday as a strong storm approaches the coast with very cold temperatures in place.


As always, the placement and strength of the low will decide who sees what and how much of it. And unfortunately, as it is with Western Wa and snow, lots of uncertainty exists. 

Right now, all the models agree that on Thursday, a low pressure system, fairly strong too, will begin to approach us from the southwest.

At this point, temperatures all over the area are in the 20's and upper levels are plenty cold. But after this, models begin to disagree with the placement of the low. 

The EURO takes the low into the Southern Oregon coast, it also has it much weaker. The storm spreads some moisture up into the Portland area, but amounts look meager and not a whole lot of impacts with this solution.

The GFS is much further north and delivers a good snow event to Portland with limited freezing rain. Then it develops a secondary low which delivers snow to Seattle on Friday. The Canadian model is similar, but has the main band of snow slightly south so Seattle doesn't get much. SW Wa gets snow on that model and Portland gets a nasty freezing rain event, however that is likely being overdone.

Other models such as the NAM, ICON and RGEM generally agree with the GFS/Canadian solution, so the EURO is off on it's own on this one.

However, the EURO is the gold standard when it comes to weather modeling and it is usually unwise to bet against it. However, this time I am leaning towards the GFS/Canadian solution and I think the EURO will change in later runs. 

At this time I would prepare for some winter storm impacts, particularly in Portland and Southwest Wa. Seattle is still too north for any meaningful impacts but that could change soon.

Will update as we get closer!!

Have a good night!!

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