Cold and Colder

 It's been pretty cold of late in the Pac West so far, however, nothing in terms of snow for the lowlands. According to the models, that might change soon!!

I'm almost scared to mention the possibility of lowland snow with how the last couple of winters have gone so far, especially for those of us in the Seattle area. But, the possibility is now only a week out, giving me a bit more confidence. 

In terms of weather around the country, nothing much but I did hear about something in New Orleans. Probably not a big deal, so we'll move on.

Seattle and Portland have been running negative departure so far this month, and will likely finish with it.

Then, next Saturday, as the calendar turns to Feb, things get interesting!

Upper Air Pattern

So far this winter, we've been stuck in a fairly progressive pattern. But that changed about a week ago. A block has set up in the GOA, which prevents any systems from the Pacific, riding the jet, from affecting us. Meaning, most systems would have to go over the ridge, on their way collecting cold air and dive back down south. Last week, the core of the cold slid east, leaving us cold and dry. This time, the trough looks to be orientated much better, and affect us more directly. 

First up is the EPS, which clearly shows strong ridging in the Gulf of Alaska, and a trough filled with cold air digging south into the PacWest.

The GEFS also agrees with the EPS which gives me even more confidence.

Lastly the Canadian ensembles also look similar.

With all the major ensembles in sync with each other, I am fairly confident that we will see arctic air to some extent next week.

Now, as seen above, the models also show the trough with a favorable orientation ( a bit of digging over the ocean). You can clearly see the cold air spilling off the BC coast, and slamming back into the Washington and Oregon. As it does this, systems can easily spin up and with the cold air, it would be snow for most of the lowlands. Overall, this type of pattern would be effective for lowland snow. But as always with snow and our area, significant uncertainly remains high and confidence is low.

Lowland Snow

Wow, the S-word is finally here. It took a while but I think this is the first time we're genuinely talking about lowland snow in the Pac West this entire winter. 

Not much to say other than the fact that most ensembles do highlight the possibility for some lowland snow next weekend. Too far out for details, but they will iron themselves as we get closer. 

I'm sure a lot of crazy snow maps will be posted in social media this week, but for now there is a lot of uncertainty. 

I am sure I will be posting more frequently this week as get closer to our time-frame.

Have a great weekend!!