Severe Weather Outbreak Tomorrow

Since I already covered most of what is going to happen here in the northwest for the rest of the week, I want to talk about the upcoming severe weather outbreak in the plains. 
To start off, here is the day 2 outlook from the storm prediction center (SPC). A rather threatening looking map with a large enhanced risk area in smack dab in the middle of the plains. This is a tornado driven enhanced risk with a hatched 10 % area in Kansas. 






Synopsis

To take a deeper look into this storm, we will need to analyze the pattern in the upper atmosphere

That little bump in the jet stream is the reason behind our severe weather outbreak. The negatively tilted trough is creating plenty of lift and instability, both necessary ingredients for a severe weather outbreak. Another ingredient needed for severe weather, particularly tornadoes, is wind shear. Wind shear for tomorrow looks particularly impressive which has me and the SPC concerned about the potential for strong (EF-2+) tornadoes. Moisture also looks decent, so the basic ingredients are there for an outbreak of severe weather.


The biggest saving grace with this system is that the storm mode looks to be primarily linear which reduces the tornado threat, although wind and hail will certainly be present. But, initially, storms could fire off as discrete supercells, particularly in Kansas and northern Oklahoma and these are the storms that will need to be watched for tornadoes. Another concern would be discrete storms firing up ahead of the main line which pose a threat for tornadoes. 

People living in these areas should pay attention to all watches and warnings issued. Every warning should be taken seriously! 

After the initial threat for tornadoes, the storms will transitions to a linear mode and race east. Main threats will be wind, hail and maybe a brief spin up tornado.

Currently my thoughts are aligned with the SPC, but I wish they would include northern Oklahoma in the significant tornado risk. 

Will try and do a national Halloween forecast tomorrow, but until then take care!! 

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