A Look Into The Storm

 Today, restoration efforts are almost complete and the last group of customers without power will likely   receive it today. A ridge will set up offshore for the last days of November, leading to fog and drizzle. In other words, Seattle at its finest. However, out east, the first major arctic blast will commence and major lake-effect snow is almost a guarantee.      Let's start with the situation in the northwest.  A weak ridge will situate itself offshore. Since it isn't overhead, it leads to a unique situation known as an inversion. An inversion is when there isn't a lot of movement in the upper air winds causing air to become stagnant. This causes a cold pool to develop in the lowlands and valleys. So while the lowlands are stuck in fog and drizzle, the mountains get to bask in the sun. This is exactly what will happen through this Thanksgiving weekend. Seattle and Portland will struggle to get out of the mid 40s with lows in the low 30s and possib...

 As Western Washington recovers from a major windstorm Tuesday night, another one is beginning to take shape. We don’t expect this one to be as bad as the last but with over 250K still in the dark, this could be problematic for restoration efforts.  Looking at satellite imagery, the remnants of our previous bomb cyclone are visible to the west of BC. This storm will slowly meander around and weaken over the next day. Our eyes are on the system to the left of the image. This system will rapidly intensify as it moves northeast. The exact track of the storm will have massive implications on the magnitude of the wind in Western Washington. Most models have the low tracking offshore at around 980 MB. A strong low but too offshore to produce significant winds inland. Good news for PSE!! However we will still keep an eye as these late forming lows are difficult to predict. If it does track inland, significant impacts are likely. This scenario is probably not going to happen but needs...

Approaching 9 PM and it is clear we are witnessing a major windstorm in the Puget sound. Over 450,000 people without power in the state . Flights being diverted from SeaTac due to rough landing conditions. Roads are a mess all over. The peak of the event will likely occur in the next hour or so with winds dying down after 10 PM. Stay inside and in an interior room if possible. Peak gusts in the past hour from the NWS:   Sunrise (Rainier): 77    Enumclaw: 74    Cape Elizabeth Buoy: 72    Camano Is.: 63    Port Townsend: 61    Federal Way: 57    Sea-Tac Airport: 55   Definitely an event that will be studied for many years to come!!

As a record breaking bombcyclone begins to intensify, it is more certain that some of the coast and the East Puget Sound Lowlands will see a period of strong winds. The NWS has issued a high wind warning for the coast and the ESPL: URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Seattle WA 1241 PM PST Mon Nov 18 2024 WAZ515>517-555-556-191300- /O.UPG.KSEW.HW.A.0001.241120T0200Z-241120T1400Z/ /O.NEW.KSEW.HW.W.0006.241119T2200Z-241120T1200Z/ Western Strait of Juan De Fuca-North Coast-Central Coast-East Puget Sound Lowlands-Bellevue and Vicinity- Including the cities of La Push, Queets, Prairie Ridge, Aberdeen, Woodinville, Hoquiam, Joyce, Covington-Sawyer-w, Sahalee, Neah Bay, Monroe, Redmond, Kirkland, Ozette, Maple Valley, Pine Lake, Newport Hills, Enumclaw, Beaver, Clallam Bay, Kenmore, Clearwater, Bothell, Sekiu, Forks, and Bonney Lake 1241 PM PST Mon Nov 18 2024 ...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO 4 AM PST WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...East to southeast winds 30 to 4...

Today's front was not all that eventful but it led to the formation of a long-lived convergence zone in southern Snohomish county. Moving forward, tomorrow will be cool and showery with highs in the lower 40's and lows in the 30's. Some places could see their first freeze. Some showers could enter the Puget Sound tmrw night, temps will be at their coldest at this time so some snow could mix in. Better chances for areas over 500 ft. Certainly not expecting any accumulation for areas below 1000 ft. Similar forecast for the Portland area. After that our attention turns to the bombcyclone.  An area of low pressure will rapidly deepen as it moves closer to the coast. The low pressure could bottom down to below 950 millibars! The storm won't have major impacts for Western Washington but the strong pressure gradient will lead to the development of east winds. The foothills (North Bend, Enumclaw, etc) could see a period of strong winds beginning Tuesday evening. Gusts up to 60 ...

 A few days ago, models were showing multiple strong ridges situating themselves over the Northwest. They hinted at above normal temperatures and almost a week without rain. But model trends drastically changed, almost overnight. And it looks like we are in for the most active weather week of the fall. Featuring chances of windstorms, flooding rain, lightning, mountain snow and maybe even some lowland snow for lucky (or unlucky) areas!     This is going to be a very complex week for forecasting as models are extremely uncertain and continue to flip-flop. I will do my best to break it down.  Act 1 (The entrance) - On Saturday, a frontal system will cross the area. Temperatures are fairly chilly tonight, in the 30s in most places so I wouldn't be surprised if there were a couple of flakes mixed in areas above 500 ft. Temps will warm through the day with highs in the upper 40's. Not a lot else with this system, more or less an average November front with lowland rain an...

A very active period of weather will occur from tonight into tomorrow. But before I dive into that, I want to talk about the tornado that occurred near Rockaway beach in Oregon yesterday evening.  Tornado Yesterday, at approximately 9:24 PM, an EF-0 tornado with winds up to 85 mph occurred in Rockaway Beach, Oregon. It was likely a waterspout that made landfall on the beach. The tornado damaged fences and broke roof shingles off houses. It went through a school parking lot, picking up various items including a porta-potty and several dumpsters. It ripped a roof off of one of the garages in the vicinity. This tornado caused one minor injury. It had a maximum width of 150 yards and an approximate path of 0.25 miles. This is all based on the damage assessment performed by NWS of Portland, OR. The official report can be viewed here . Another interesting thing is there was only one storm report in the country yesterday and that was from this storm in Oregon. Not often is there only one ...

 Right now, a weak frontal feature is bringing showers to much of the southwest coast. A mere appetizer compared to what's coming up: a week-long deluge of storms. By the end of the upcoming week, up to 3 inches of rain will have fallen in many parts of the region, along with plenty of new snow in the mountains.  System #1 (Sunday to Monday) -  On Sunday evening, a vigorous front will find its way up the Washington coastline, bringing heavy rain and mountain snow.  The front will bring impressive rain totals to much of the area. 2-4 inches for the coast and Olympics, and up to 1.5 inches in much of western Washington. Understandably, the NWS has a hydrologic outlook out for most of the area with concern for river flooding by the end of the week. Snow levels look to be a bit higher so Snoqualmie pass may only pick up a slushy inch or two, but areas with a bit more elevation like Stevens pass may pick up a few inches of new snow with this system. As always, a convergen...

  Update 6PM- Timing of the storm has moved up a bit. The peak of the storm will likely be in the morning rather than the afternoon. Everything else remain on track. Forecast still looks to be mostly on track for tomorrow's storm but wanted to provide a quick update. The national weather service has sent out high wind warnings and wind advisories as necessary. They have left out most of the central sound out of the wind advisory as they believe it will be sheltered by the mountains but I do wish they went ahead and included Seattle and vicinity in the advisory.  As far as the timeline goes, tomorrow morning southerly winds will start up. Areas like Tacoma and Olympia will feel gusts up to 45 mph. Southerly winds will peak just as the front passes through. Seattle will certainly feel the wind by the lunch hour. Then as the front passes, a damaging westerly surge will roar down the strait of Juan De Fuca. Gusts up to 65 mph are possible for areas along the immediate coast of the...

 Apologies for not posting on Halloween, as I was quite busy, but I'm back now as we have more active weather to watch.  Starting today, a series of weather systems will cross the area bringing lowland rain, mountain snow and wind. As I write this, a weak front is coming ashore but this will just be an appetizer for the bigger storm on Monday and that is what I will be talking about today. Synopsis On Monday, a strong area of low pressure, originating way off in the Pacific near Hawaii, will come ashore on the coast of Vancouver Island. As this strong low moves over the interior B.C area, the pressure gradient will cause windy conditions in the western Washington area. Much uncertainty exists to the position and strength of the low, but some of the solutions have been concerning with very high wind gusts being portrayed, especially in areas near the strait of Juan De Fuca. The storm will also bring a strong frontal system to the south of the low pressure, affecting the area. H...