A Look Into The Storm

 Happy New Year!! The first full week of the new year looks like it's going to be an active one with a pair of strong systems diving down from the gulf of Alaska.  The first front moves in tonight bringing the usual lowland rain and mountain snow. A particularly chilly lowland rain as this system is moving in from the northwest, temperatures will hang in the low 40's for most of the day tomorrow with occasionally breezy weather in the morning as the front passes through. The mountains will get absolutely hammered with snow, good news for the snowpack! This first system should bring 3/4 of an inch of rain to most of the lowlands and up to 16 inches of snow for the passes, higher where a CZ forms tmrw evening.  On the heels of this, another strong cold front enters the area come Wednesday morning. This one looks more potent as it is already entering a somewhat unstable airmass behind the previous front. Some of the Hi-Res models depict a squall line crossing the area early ...

 It's gonna get windy tomorrow. How windy? Well that's the sixty seven thousand dollar question we've all been asking. The Setup An area of low pressure of the California coast will begin to consolidate and strengthen over the next 12 hours. As it does so, it will be moving north towards Washington and Oregon. The exact track and strength of the low pressure system will determine the magnitude of the winds tomorrow. So let's break down all the possibilities. 1. The EURO  The EURO has been portraying the weakest outcome for this system. The low strengthens down to the about 987 millibars, but the it moves inland over Oregon and Washington, resulting in gusts up to 45 MPH for most of the region. Windy? Sure, but nothing crazy. This would be our "run of the mill" wind event with some tree damage and scattered power outages.  2. Historic Windstorm (NAM) Moving on, the NAM, a mesoscale model that is used for forecasting in the US, has been portraying a particularly...

Christmas approaches so let's dive into the forecast for the week ahead! Today the day has started out very nicely with temps in the mid to low 40's for much of the area. But a system will cross the area today afternoon and evening bringing about rain and mountain snow. After the front crosses, tomorrow should be fairly benign with some showers in the area. Then the forecast becomes extremely complicated as we head into Christmas Eve.  Christmas Eve: About 2-3 days it looked like it would just be normal weather (45 and rain) for most of the region. But suddenly models began picking up on the potential for a windstorm, a particularly historic one at that.  The European model had been showing a low pressure system strengthen near the California coast and track almost due north, casting an intense pressure gradient over Western Oregon and Washington.  This would be disastrous for the region as a whole, wind gusts of 70 - 80 MPH in the Willamate valley and up to 60 MPH contin...

Sorry but been a while since I was able to get this up and running due to lots of stuff going on! But as winter break approaches and weather has taken a much more active turn, I will be posting more frequently. After catastrophic flooding in many areas of Washington in the last couple days, the break in the rain this weekend will most certainly aid recovery efforts, however the weather will take a much more active turn in the coming week with more storms entering the area. After a dry and partly sunny Saturday, our next system enters the area on Sunday. Rain should start spreading over most of the area through Sunday afternoon and evening, and really begin to pick up in rate over night. Now the difference with this system is that snow levels will drop on Monday, meaning the precipitation will actually fall as snow at many of the passes! Good news for skiers! Up to 2-3 feet of snow can be expected for Snoqualmie and Stevens passes, with higher totals in the North cascades! Although this...

 Yesterday's rain was just a warm-up round for what's to come. Two strong fronts will cross the Northwest interior in the next couple of days bringing heavy rain, windy weather, and even a risk for a tornado or two! The first system will begin impacting the region late tonight. Expect a washout of a Wednesday in Western Washington and Oregon. Gusty conditions will also accompany the rain, particularly on the day Wednesday, with gusts up to 40 MPH expected for some of the interior areas. Stronger winds along the coast.  Interestingly, the SPC has put areas of the Western Oregon coast under a marginal risk for a weak tornado or two. The risk is very low, but people living out on the coast can definitely expect a couple of strong cells packed with heavy rain, wind and lightning. Heed warnings if they are issued! Meanwhile, further inland, impacts may not be as severe, however lightning and some winds could accompany some of the stronger cells. Another strong front will enter the ...

Been a while but I am back for what will hopefully be a fun and exciting winter! Onto the weather; The break in rain will continue until a low from the south enters the area on Monday. This will be a quick moving system, and most of the rain would be more focused on the Portland and Southern Puget Sound areas. Up to 3/4 of an inch of rain can be expected for these areas. In Seattle, only a quarter of an inch of rain should fall on Monday/Tuesday. Temps will remain in the 40's, but cooler up north  (Whatcom, Skagit). A much more vigorous system enters the area on Wednesday. Expect some breezy conditions Wednesday morning, along with rain. The precipitation with this system will be much more widespread, with the rain lasting multiple days. By the time the rain tapers off, upwards of 2 inches of rain will be very likely for most lowland areas, higher amounts in the mountains. Snow levels should remain slightly higher with this system, so not expecting too much snow for Snoqualmie and ...